48 Hours
I, like many interested in the drama surrounding Iran’s June 11 elections, have barely been able to leave my computer for the past few days; instead I have eagerly watched as events that have the potential to literally recreate a nation have unfolded before my eyes. I have been stricken by the incredible persistence and nonviolence of the protesters—save, of course, for a few sporadic clashes with the thug-like Basij militia—and by the Iranian government’s willingness to allow the protests to proceed virtually unhindered. This is of course a vast simplification of the current climate in Tehran and other Iranian cities, but overall, there has yet to be a major clash between the “Sea of Green” protesters and the Iranian military, a fact that the protesters see as a major coup against their hardline government.
However, I’m afraid that the climate of these protests may soon change. In fact, I was stricken by the potential irony of a recent “tweet” from the Iranian micro-blogger “persiankiwi” (a source that has thus far proved both daring and accurate in its attempts to inform readers both in and outside Iran of the unfolding drama) that read: “hospital source - severe shortage of blood supplies accross ALL Iran hospitals - pls donate blood”. There is a definite possibility that Iranian hospitals, streets and gutters will soon have no shortage of blood.
Yes, this is a pessimistic view. However, the time to survey the situation bought early this week by Ayatollah Khamenei and his Guardian Council is trickling away quickly, almost as quickly as is their control of the events of what might be referred to in history books as Iran’s “Green Revolution.” Indeed, a revolution very well could be brewing. Unconfirmed reports of dissension in the ranks of the Sepah Pasdaran (commonly referred to in the West as the Revolutionary Guards Corps or IRGC), including rumors that commanders of the IRGC were arrested today, have been wildly circulating on the Internet, as have reports that the regular military and police have refused to engage the protesters. All of this leads one to believe the report that “All the violence in Iran is now ONLY by the Basij militia, they are beating people walking int he street for NO REASON”. If true, “President” Ahmadinejad may very well not need his return ticket from the SCO conference.
The problem lies in the plain likelihood that Khamenei and Ahmadinejad still have a few more tricks up their sleeve. The facts seem to say that the situation in Iran is only growing more tense—one report reads that “The security situation in Tehran is very dangerous - 100’s arrested every day” another notes that “Tehran hospital doctors are on 24 hour standby.” People have been advised to “travel in groups - always tell someone where u are going - dont go out unless needed” and “NOT to attend Friday prayers inTehran” that will be led by the Ayatollah himself. Finally, in a rather macabre final message before signing off for the night, Twitter users wrote that “political situ in Iran is v/complex - for every decision there are reasons - some we cannot mention here”.
With the climate growing more and more hostile in Iran, it is almost certain that we will see some sort of retaliation from Khamenei within 48 hours; hence the title of this post. The problem lies in predicting its ferocity, and outcome. For once, the liberal American media is playing a conservative card, refusing to recognize the possibility that the Sea of Green protesters could actually bring about change in Iran, simply waiting for a recreation of the Tiananmen Square massacre twenty years ago. There is a distinct possibility that tanks will start rolling—perhaps only a few hours from now—that the protests will be crushed, and that life under the dominating clerics (and, more importantly, the military) will become even more harsh and authoritarian. We could very well see that a military coup has occurred in Iran, as Danielle Pletka and Ali Alfoneh recently argued in the New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/17/opinion/17pletka.html?_r=1&ref=todayspaper). Such a coup would not be surprising, in fact many Iran experts would openly acknowledge that events since Ahmadinejad’s first election in 2005 have indicated the Iranian military’s (specifically the IRGC’s) vastly expanded role in government. The bottom line is, there is a strong chance that the excitement of successful demonstrations may soon come to an end, despite the million-plus-strong Sea of Green’s best efforts.
All of that said, there is also a chance that the reports indicating that Khamenei and his loyal followers have lost their grip on Iran are true. There is a chance that Mousavi, the de facto if frequently-absent leader of the Sea of Green, will manage to wrest control of the presidential palace and all of the duties that residence infers away from Ahmadinejad. There is a chance that the people of Iran will overthrow the clerical system, its weaknesses exposed now that the Supreme Leader has admitted that his word is not infallible, creating a Westernized democracy that will serve as an example for oppressed Middle Easterners from Damascus to Riyadh. There is a chance that the Sea of Green will turn into the long-awaited Green Revolution, the first in a series of governmental upheavals not unlike the color revolutions seen in Eastern European countries following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
And there is a chance that I’m full of shit, and that this is all wishful thinking.
The secret is, no one in the West really knows. This is what has glued us to our computer screens, waiting to see when the first significant blow will fall, when the die is finally cast. We have very little fact and vast amounts of speculation, a formula that leaves us ripe for high hopes and strong disappointments. At this point, it is hard to argue that the election wasn’t rigged. Perhaps Ahmadinejad did win a majority, but I find it impossible to believe that not one of the three opposition candidates managed to carry a majority in his hometown, as the election’s overseers claim. But at this point, the winner of the election is irrelevant. Six days ago, the Ayatollah chose a winner. Soon, he will have to decide whether or not to change his mind. The events of the following days will have an incredible impact not only in Iran, but also in the greater Middle East and perhaps even worldwide.
Those who understand the stakes at risk here understand why people have barely left their computers, they understand why these events matter. The rumblings of change have intensified into tremors in Iran, and, like it or not, earthquakes are coming.
